Then there’s the snooze of an Irish election campaign and the celebration of Thanksgiving 3,000 miles from Boston

“Not hugely surprised, but still kinda shocked.”  This has been my stock response as I have been questioned continually – on the airwaves, at the golf club, in the supermarket, and on our road – about what I make of Donald Trump’s having been chosen by the American people to be the 47th president of the United States.

My sense in the days leading up to Nov. 5 was that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz were in possession of last minute momentum that could, by a whisker, get the Democrats over the line.  They may have had some wind behind them, yet it manifestly was not enough to prevail.

Trump had a significant advantage on inflation and immigration, the two issues that meant most to the citizenry, and Harris, despite having a persuasive counter narrative on both topics at her disposal, proved an ineffective messenger.  Additionally, her boss, President Joe Biden, foolishly pursued a second term until it became obvious that he was not up to the task.  His late withdrawal did not help his party’s cause.  What would have been recalled as the proud Irish American’s sterling career in public service now will eternally have an asterisk attached to it.

There is more to it, however.  It boils down to what the dwindling tribe of moderate to conservative Democrats, to which I belong, has collectively been warning of for many years at this stage.  Exit surveys distributed by the Democratic polling firm Blueprint reveal that the main reason why self-described swing voters went for Trump ultimately was they believe (key word) that “Kamala Harris is focused more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class.”

Her defenders robustly assert that she actually did not stress social issues in her truncated campaign and that the party needs to be unapologetically “woke” in its posturing.  The former reply ignores the facts that Democrats have long been perceived to be on the hard left on the “culture wars” and that the sole subject the San Franciscan was consistently articulate on was access to abortion, which engendered an understandable sense that it was her number one priority.

The latter reflexive retort, a singularly animating article of faith for lots of progressives, glosses over what are for them painful truths.  Owing largely to what is widely seen as their preachy disposition, their party has lost the white working class.  Latinos, the fastest growing segment of the population, are gravitating apace to the GOP.  To help stop the bleeding, a simple wording alteration could work wonders.

“Reproductive rights” and “reproductive freedom” on abortion are the mantras of the left.  The thing is, though, that referring in such virtuous fashion to what the crucial swathe of women and men in the middle consider a necessary evil can alienate.  Further, activists seem convinced that all women are pro-choice; Pew Research Center data gathered this May, post the reversal of Roe v Wade, shows that one-third think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.

Veering away from “reproductive rights” or “reproductive freedom” and reverting to Bill Clinton’s ingenious “safe, legal, and rare” formulation would send a strong, renewed signal that Democratic Party is a big tent.  Will an expeditious pivot happen?  Sadly, that is very difficult to envisage, primarily because of the influence of lobby groups and the pernicious role of the almighty buck in US politics.

Meanwhile, my family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues on this island look aghast at Donald Trump and the, frankly, dreadful cast of characters who will make up his administration.  They ask, “What happened to America?”  I have my own thoughts on their query, but nowhere near the space here to provide a satisfactory answer.

For the moment, we have to buckle up.  Irish politicians, diplomats, and businesspeople must engage constructively to protect this country’s interests and to ensure that our sacred relationship with the US doesn’t suffer.  And the Irish undocumented in the Boston area and beyond need to keep their heads down.  The situation could get far worse before it gets any better.

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By total contrast to the spectacle that was the race for the White House, the Irish general election has been a snooze fest, at least at the time of writing.  “Wake me up when it’s over” was John Downing’s apt assessment in the Irish Independent.  That said, the relatively dignified manner in which the vast majority of incumbents and aspirants have comported themselves is a relief after the madness we all watched unfold across the Atlantic.  We will have had our say on Nov. 29.

All of the polling suggests that the two traditional big beasts in Irish politics, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, will again be in government.  The X factor is which entity will garner the most seats?  Sinn Féin, whose fall from lofty heights to a horrendous performance in the local and European contests in June has been well-documented, appears to have recovered slightly.  The so-called “soft left” parties aren’t capturing hearts and minds to any great extent.  An ideologically diverse range of independents will be elected.  Immigration, which looked at one point as if it would be a dominant concern, is not as central.  Housing is top of the list.

So, which direction is it headed in?  Of course, there could be a surprise that upends the state of play.  But as matters stand, my suspicion is that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will do well.  Just how well will determine whether they only need a handful of independents to form a governing coalition or if they will also need one of the smaller parties.  Even for an inveterate political junkie like me, it’s pretty boring.  That’s probably a good thing.

•••

At the risk of repeating myself, Thanksgiving is the one day annually I dearly wish I could be home in East Milton with family and friends.  In fairness to them, my wife and sons do their best and have embraced this distinctly American celebration in which we express our gratitude for the blessings bestowed on us and we indulge in food, drink, and football.  But a big part of my heart won’t be in Wicklow.

Fortunately, we are making a trip stateside – first to Washington, DC and then to the Hub of the Universe – after Christmas.  I can’t wait to see all the people and places that mean the world to me.  And I’ll grin and bear the torrent of abuse I’ll get for having just turned the big 5-0!  I hope readers enjoy this special time of year.

Larry Donnelly is a Boston born and educated attorney, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway, and a regular media contributor on politics, current affairs, and law in Ireland and the US.  Twitter/X: @LarryPDonnelly